Making predictions is an art rather than a science. The predictions outlined in this post are probabilities which are very likely to happen this year and are based on my analysis of current trends in world affairs as well as an element of ‘gut instinct’. I have tried to make them as specific as possible.
In future posts on this blog I will explore in further detail where I see the world going in the coming years, which will incorporate in part my musings on how the year 2016 may pan out.
1) Donald Trump will become the GOP candidate and will defeat Hilary Clinton in the Presidential election.
I might as well start with a bang! Donald Trump was initially considered by the political and media elites who dominate national discourse (collectively the “pundocracy”) as a joke candidate whose campaign would implode within months. On the contrary the Donald is leading the Republican race by heavy margins in key Republican seats and according to the latest polls, is now virtually tied to Hilary Clinton (the assumed Democratic candidate to be) on who the voters would elect as their next president.
The pundocracy have totally failed to get the Trump phenomenon. The rise of Trump represents in part an anti-Washington backlash from voters sick of the bipartisan status quo as much as it is a scream of economic insecurity of the working and lower-middle classes of America. The majority of Americans have not benefited from the economic recovery which has disproportionately gone to the top 20% of American society.
On the matter of the ‘total shutdown of Muslims to America’, I will explore in a later post this proposal, but polls show significant support for Trumps proposal. I believe that that the trends of rising Islamic fundamentalism and terrorist attacks around the world will drive growing support for Trump’s stance on this issue. Ordinary Americans want to feel safe and Trump’s proposal will make more and more sense. I don’t think Clinton will be able to respond to concerns of Islamic terrorism effectively and assure the American people that she has a credible plan to prevent and contain this threat. Foreign policy and security will be top concerns in this presidential election and Trump is riding on a wave which will likely land him in the White House by this time next year.
2) Britain will vote (just) to leave the EU
According to the opinion polls the Brexit referendum, likely this summer, is going to be very close. Why do I think Britain will vote to leave the EU? Firstly, the Leave campaign will have heavyweight political and City backing as well as major media groups backing it. It will be much harder for the establishment to paint the Leave campaign as a bunch of fringe loonies. The Leave campaigns are fully aware that they need to convince the floating centre of British voters that the risks of staying in the EU are higher than the risks of leaving.
The second reason that I think that the Leave campaign will just swing it their way is that the migration crisis will erupt in a greater storm this year with hundreds of thousands of Muslim migrants trying to get into Europe this summer, when the vote will likely take place. Daily news reports of chaos on Europe’s borders will convince floating voters that the Leave campaign has a point and that Britain would be better off outside the EU.
3) Civil unrest in Germany major cities by migrants
Germany accepted a million migrants last year and the vast majority of them are still there. The European Commission has predicted that up to 3 million more migrants will try and enter the European Union this year. Hundreds of thousands of young men, bored, alienated and unable to work in German cities will eventually lead to an explosion of violence.
As what happened in the hot summer of 2011 when Britain experienced riots in its major cities by its urban underclass, thousands of young migrants will riot across Germany’s cities, most likely in the summer months of 2016.
4) An attempt will be made to remove Angela Merkel from office
The German leader has seen her personal popularity fall since she allowed hundreds of thousands of migrants into Germany. The bulk of her Christian Democratic Party leadership and grassroots disagree with her ‘open door’ policy on migration and the pressures on Angela Merkel to change course will grow once it becomes obvious how enormous the challenge is of integrating the migrants who have entered Germany in 2015.
The expected flood of migrants to enter the EU in 2016 will drive the conservative factions of the CDU to attempt to force her from power as they fear a collapse in the electoral fortunes of the government.
5) ISIS will launch a multiple urban European terror attack
ISIS has the will and the capability to unleash its sleeper cells of terrorists in major European cities and attack civilians with simultaneous terror attacks. According to various reports, thousands of ISIS terrorists have infiltrated central Europe through the refugee flows and hundreds of battle hardened jihadi fighters have returned to Europe after fighting with ISIS in Syria.
It is likely therefore that major European cities will be targeted by these sleeper cells of terrorists this year, with London, Paris, Brussels as well as key German and Austrian cities the most likely targets. A simultaneous and co-ordinated terror atrocity across Europe will shake Europe to its knees and will provide a massive boost to Donald Trumps presidential campaign.