Not a huge amount to update since my last quick takes session.

One blog I strongly recommend you bookmark is this one here, his writing is consistently excellent. His latest piece goes into detail on why 2030 is looking to be a car crash for the advanced world’s economy as overall energy production peaks and the cost to produce energy soars from 2030 onwards.

This very much aligns with my wider outlook of a Greater Depression commencing at some point in the 2nd half of this decade (although I think it will only become truly apparent to all around 2030). I have written plenty before on this blog on what to prepare for in anticipation of what is coming (something we have known since the 1970s and the Limits to Growth report came out).

To keep it simple, get out of debt, live a modest lifestyle, learn useful skills, diversify your income streams and build up supplies of non-perishable stuff that you find useful when globalised supply chains still function. Learn to grow some food, don’t rely too much of unsustainable systems and think about where you want to live long term.

As for the US elections, the overall impression is that since that debate performance, Trump has effectively wiped out the narrow but real lead in the Electoral College vote and the election is basically a pure tie right now. I’m starting to see the signs though that memories of the debate is starting to fade a bit and the fundamentals are starting to re-assert themselves again. So, just maybe, Trump is starting to inch out ahead of Harris again in a few key states.

My overall impression is Trump is ahead in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and therefore would narrowly win the election if it was held today. However, this is a very tight race and overall I would call it a tie right now. The next few weeks are critical but Trump seems to have avoided any stupid gaffes since his poor debate performance and that seems to be helping him to edge up again.

There is growing chatter about a potential Chinese invasion/attack on Taiwan around 2027 and the risks of a world war and a economic crisis. We will see. I’m not wholly convinced but its certainly a real possibility. I would like to think that despite all the sabre rattling we can dodge a major war this decade even if we get hot wars in the margins like in the Middle East right now.

As for that other war in eastern Europe, Russia is making incremental progress in taking the whole of the Donbass as the Ukrainian army falls apart. Nothing has changed in my base case that 2024 will see the Donbas fall to Russia, 2025 larger part of Ukraine including possibly Kiev and Odessa and, should the war still be on, 2026 the bulk of the remaining country collapsing.

Most likely, at some point in 2025, there will be a ceasefire and a deal between the Russians and whoever replaces Zelensky. What happens after that is a fascinating question. Most likely, a strange period where the new realities everyone adjusts to as Europe wakes up to the fact Russia is the dominant military power. Will the Americans hang around or leave Europe to its fate? That’s a hard call and depends on who wins the elections.

That’s it for this time. Enjoy the peace!