The Gamblers

Financial Times

“Export prices rose 1.3% in July. YOY they’re up 17.2%. The 2021 gain is 13.5%, which annualizes to a shocking 23%. It’s likely that prices of goods we don’t export rose by a similar percentage. 23% is a more honest measure of inflation than the CPI. It’s worse than the 1970’s!”

Peter Schiff tweet 13th August 2021

“Current Covid-19 vaccines (either mRNA or viral vectors) are based on the original Wuhan spike sequence. Inasmuch as neutralizing antibodies overwhelm facilitating antibodies, ADE is not a concern. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants may tip the scales in favour of infection enhancement. Our structural and modelling data suggest that it might be indeed the case for Delta variants.”

Journal of Infection, « Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies… », 9th August 2021

I am currently writing this blog post in the rarefied world of a 5-star Hilton development in an ultra-exclusive enclave in Costa de Sol. Surrounded by infinity pools, tennis courts and Michelin starred restaurants, it is hard to imagine that there is anything wrong in the world. Certainly, the rich, beautiful young things that float around the enclave don’t appear to have a concern in the world.

In the real world, outside the shrinking circles of privilege encapsulated in the temporary Hilton home of mine, problems are building up as we start the Long Descent of our industrial civilisation.

I am to cover two key areas where our governing elites have taken a series of gambles that could prove brilliantly right or disastrously wrong. The first is the inflation bogie that is starting to rear its ugly head again. Official inflation rates are soaring across the developed world. Our central bankers solemnly tell us that these inflationary pressures are “transitory” and that there is no need to panic. However, some of the wise old birds in the economics profession, who still remember the stagflationary 70’s, are warning that if our monetary authorities carry on printing money it will risk a descent into the inflationary era last seen in the 70’s.

Inflation is a form of hidden tax that destroys the value of most forms of capital. If the inflation rate is 6%, you need to make a return of more than 6% to make a real return. Should the cash remain in a current account “earning” 0.01% interest, you are losing 6% of your capital a year. Should we see an extended period of inflation, you could see significant capital destruction. I have written about this in my recent book review on how the wealthy survived the mid-century disasters that bevelled Europe.

All the signs are that our central bankers will carry on the existing set of policies, even though the data coming in indicates growing supply disruption issues, costs rising and budding inflationary forces in the economy.

Individuals need to start inflation hedging themselves, and think about how they will cope with rising costs of basic inputs, including food and petrol, as well the generalised impact of disruptions of goods and services in the future. Investors would be wise to consider, as I have explored here, how to protect their wealth should our central banker gamblers get it wrong, and we see a return of inflation this decade.

Our global elites are also making a massive gamble right now through their pandemic response; specifically using experimental vaccines on a mass scale where we do not know the long-term health consequences. Having done a lot of recent reading on this complex area, it appears to this layman that there are two principal risks in the current mass vaccination strategy.

The first is the potentially severe long-term negative health consequences of the mass rollout of the Covid vaccines on the population. Whilst the authorities have acknowledged the rare risks of heart inflammation among younger people (Pfizer) and blood clots for J&J and AstraZeneca, there are concerning signs that this is the tip of the ocean.

The VARS database is the US Government database where potential adverse reactions to any vaccines are recorded. Studies suggest that the VARS system only captures between 1% and 10% of actual adverse events that happen in the wider population, so the numbers listed are probably a gross under-estimate. However, it is a vital way of picking up early data that things might be going wrong.


The above graph shows the recorded adverse reactions going back decades. And yes, that straight line up in 2021 is the Covid-19 vaccines, e.g., Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and AstraZeneca. It’s surprising to say the least, that this hasn’t attracted more (or any) media coverage or indeed the equivalent spike in recorded adverse reactions in the UK and Europe. The mainstream media aren’t interested in this story it seems.

Dr Jessica Rose broadcast on YouTube a fascinating if rather harrowing video on the early trends within that data set up to the month of April.

The most alarming trends are the apparent connection between the Covid 19 vaccines and miscarriages of pregnant woman as well as the rise of autoimmune diseases. This fits into the warnings of some very experienced scientists that the way the spike protein targeting Covid vaccines work leads to the spread of spike proteins around the body, including the ovaries among females, which could trigger cancer or autoimmune diseases among those jabbed. These risks appear particularly high for those jabbed with the revolutionary vaccines Pfizer and Moderna.

It goes without saying that the longer-term consequences for those populations jabbed with the Covid 19 vaccines could be disastrous. The young and fertile age groups, could face serious ‘Long Vaccine’ legacy in the years to come. I, for one, is sufficiently concerned by these early data signals to make the decision not to get jabbed with the currently available set of vaccines around. Its possible that the 2nd generation of vaccines in the pipeline – Valneva and Novavax – will prove safer and more effective but we will see what the trial data says.

The second big risk, apart from gambling with the potential long-term health of the younger generations, is the risk of ADE. What is ADE? ADE is Antibody Dependent Enhancement. In very simple terms, a vaccine works when the antibody effectively neutralises the virus. In some viruses, if a person harbours a non-neutralising antibody to the virus, a subsequence infection by the virus can cause that person to elicit a more severe reactions to the virus due to the presence of the non-neutralising antibody.

The bad news is that ADE is common to the family of coronaviruses, which Covid 19 is part of. The probability of ADE happening is therefore quite high. Should ADE occur in an individual, their responses to the virus can be worse than their response if they had never developed an antibody in the first place.

The respected vaccine expert Dr Robert Malone is warning that we may already be seeing the signals of ADE in the data. If that is the case, the repercussions will be huge.

These vaccines, rather than making us safe, have placed millions at risk of getting more ill should a “wild” variant of Covid resistant to the existing suite of Covid-19 vaccines becomes prevalent in the population. We would need to return to soft lockdowns, strict border controls and the emergency review of what existing drugs could be used to avoid massive death among the vulnerable.

This is something known to the medical experts and if the ADE fears are proven wrong, a case can be made that the vaccination rollout gable has proved a success. If the darkest fears of those like Dr Malone are proven right than the gamble will have potentially disastrous consequences for us all.

Let’s hope they are wrong…

The Gamblers