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Apologies for the delay in posting, been a bit busy the last few months!

So, what has fundamentally changed since my last series of posts early this year and late last year? Well, for one thing it looks highly likely we are facing a re-run of the Biden versus Trump contest in November 2024 (assuming neither candidate is incapacitated or dies between now and then).

If one looks at the swing state polling, there is a clear and consistent trend that Trump is narrowly ahead in the majority of the states and this has been the case for months now. There is a plausible path for President Biden to win, through Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania (which assumes he loses the rest of the swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada etc).

Here is the map for the US electoral college geeks among you.

My own personal view remains, albeit with a low conviction ratio, that Trump is more likely than not to win this election but very narrowly. I wouldn’t be shocked or surprised if the above turns out to be the result on election day though.

Biden’s best pathway is through the mainly white Rust Belt states in the northeast given his declining numbers among non-white minorities that are trending towards the Republicans.

At a bigger scale, all the metrics do seem to suggest we are tracking the LTG BAU modelling on a macro scale. I discovered a very interesting article recently called Peak Everything which attempts to track what is likely to be an economic depression coming.

Here is one of their graphs, one I find most interesting:

It tries to capture the trajectory of the global economy as we face declining energy inputs and rising energy requirements to maintain energy supplies going forward.

What is clearly obvious is that 1) more and more economic activity will be essentials in nature and investment and discretionaries (e.g. nice to haves) will shrink from around now into 2040 and 2) at sometime around the mid 2020s, again around now, global prosperity will shift into contraction rather than growth (it appears to become clear around 2026/27 when we tip into economic contraction), until then we are basically stagnating (with certain bits of the globe still growing for a few more years).

This also aligns with various sources I track in terms of the S&P 500 that suggest we are looking at a peak in the US equity index around 2026 at 6k or above. Whether it crashes after that, corrects and goes sideways until the late 2020s remains to be seen. Certainly looking at those charts its hard not to conclude a major financial and equities crash is looming, certainly past 2028 or so.

My personal strategy is to take profits over 2025/2026 in my equities, hold cash and be patient and wait for the inevitable crash in the markets to buy high quality dividend earning companies geared to the “essentials” economy. I’m thinking mining, energy, fertiliser, agricultural and consumer durables. After all, we will still consume energy, use copper, eat and produce food and require tractors, toothpaste and baby wipers in 20 years (even if we can’t afford fancy smartphones, new cars, foreign holidays, new clothes, expensive aftershave and the latest tech gadgets etc).

That is what the blog, which I do recommend reading in full, here, covers in depth.

Population trends, specifically the looming peak in global population is also beautifully captured by one of John Greer’s recent essays, here. To cut a long story short, with a contracting population you will see a contracting economy. There will be little point investing (outside niche areas), businesses will struggle to make a profit and anyone who owns assets should expect the mean to go lower as less and less people are around to use or consume anything.

Peter Zeihan has also discussed the dire implications of this for our current system in depth as well. The long and short of it is welfare systems, and pension systems in particular, are unlikely to survive these shocks. What is likely to happen is a political crisis, triggered by a fiscal/debt crisis triggered in term by the end of growth and various attempts to try and stabilise the system. This will be a mix of rampant money printing, cutting of benefits to working age people and in the worst case scenario a collapse of governments.

The key point to remember is to rely less on governments and corporations going forward. DIY is the future as Greer writes well in his latest post online. One example of rising costs is insurance, something Ian Welsh has commented on his recent post here, as availability is already starting to shrink for those places most exposed to fires and hurricanes.

“As government fails, we will be pushed back on what we can do for ourselves, and for that to work we’ll have to be realistic: “what can our group actually do?” Can we source medicines? Can we rebuild?“. This is our future, we will have to become more self-reliant, whether we like it or not.

So my macro outlook remains the same, these forces are building up like a earthquake, the signals are already flashing red, and are likely to explode in the late 2020s/early 2030s in a systemic political, financial and energetic crisis.

I haven’t discussed this before, but I have maintained a private “model” of where the Ukraine war is heading for a while now. We are tracking a WW2 model, with 2022 being Russia’s 1941 (a disaster), 2023 being 1942 (not good but Stalingrad proving a turning point), with 2024 being 1943 when Russia made major progress in winning the war and gaining territory, and 2025/26 being the collapse of Ukraine and surrender.

The loss of Bakhmut to the Russians in 2023 is equivalent to Stalingrad and the more recent loss of the fortress of Avdiivek could potentially be similar to the Battle of Kiev in 1943, after which the Germans lost their strategic offensive capacity. What this suggests is a collapse of the Ukrainian lines at some point between this year and 2026, or at least starting this Summer when the Russians are likely to launch their massive offensive.

The defeat of Ukraine would not just be a disaster for Ukrainians but also a humiliation for NATO and the Western powers. It will cause huge tensions within the EU and likely accelerate the withdrawal of the Americans back to their continental heartland.

To summarise, we are still in the early stages of a collapse of the current globalised geopolitical and economic order and whatever replaces it will be regional and local in nature as globalised supply chains unravel in the coming decades.

Our world will become smaller, more frugal and closer to what our parents and grandparents lived. Its not the end of the world but the expectations gap between the future we were promised and what we are likely to get is huge, particularly in the developed world.

Best to buy the popcorn and enjoy the ride folks.

Its nearing the end of 2023 and a comment at a recent work meeting struck me. We were discussing 2024 and someone said that they hoped it would be better than 2023, after which someone else replied that we have been saying that since 2020 and each year it gets worse not better.

I found it fascinating.

And interestingly perfectly in line with my good old friend, Limits to Growth Business as Usual model that has just been recalibrated.

Online Library

The full article can be found here but the summary of the changes are essentially “the main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future.”

So, basically we are on track, more or less. The key lines to track are the hard lines (not the dotted ones) as they are the updated model based on empirical data. The good news is food production is facing a less disastrous drop in production but other than that to me it is basically the same. That industrial output drop is terrifying.

What it suggests is that global industrial output has already started to collapse but we are in the very early stages and it will massively accelerate from now. Maybe geopolitics will drive that, or exploding oil prices or probably a mix of many factors (including demand destruction, disruption of JIT supply chains, wars, piracy and the shutdown of key trading chokepoints like we are already seeing around the Suez Canal.

Its worth quoting elements of the report to highlight what we are facing;

• “The model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable.”
• “This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak.”

So there you go. We are here, the cliff is directly ahead of us and all my years of warnings about what is coming ahead is now upon us (it appears). I hope you are prepared mentally and physically as much as you can be given the gut wrenching impact that it will hit us, in varying degrees, at a personal and geographical level over the rest of this decade and beyond.

For those who want to know about what is likely this decade, I suggest you read this blog post by me, here and here.

In terms of what else I’m tracking, the turn around in Ukraine is quite stunning. We now have mainstream media openly talking about the possibility of a Russian victory, something I have long maintained was a likely outcome from this war.

And in the dissident media, articles that increasingly highlight just how much a paper tiger NATO is in military terms. This article here talks about NATO and how utterly useless most European militaries are with even the US increasingly facing challenges.

Or as this writer puts it, the strategic nightmare facing Europe is as follows: “One result of this has been that public, and even expert, opinion, scarcely noticed the running down of conventional forces in Europe. Commentators recently seemed astonished to discover that the massive NATO forces of the Cold War had evaporated, and that NATO as a whole could scarcely muster a dozen light mechanised brigades, capable of fighting or a week or two before their supplies and ammunition were exhausted.

In theory, massive reinforcements might come from the US, but only by bringing back into service mothballed 1980s tanks and finding and training crews for them and their supporting arms, which, even if it were possible, at best would take years and cost a fortune. So ironically, NATO now confronts the one contingency for which it was expressly designed—a powerful and heavily militarised Russia confronting a weak Europe—at a time when it has never been less able to meet it.” 

Whilst President Putin is the biggest threat to Europe, longer term, other risks, including a large conventional armies of places like Türkiye, Egypt and Algeria could come to threaten a disarmed Europe. The places least at risk are those furthest away from the Muslim world and Russia, e.g. north-west Europe (Norway, UK and Ireland primarily).

It looks increasingly likely that Ukraine will aim to draft hundreds of thousands of young men, women and anyone else they can rally to build one final major army to defend their positions in the East. It is looking likely – although we will see – that the Russians will make major advances in 2024 across the eastern front.

Once it becomes clear that the West has effectively lost this proxy war with Russia, it will increase the power shift from a declining US led West to a neo-Axis alliance across the globe. One will also expect to see increasingly aggressive moves by all sorts of actors, both state and non-state, against America and its closest allies in 2024 and beyond.

Difficult times are coming and our politicians are largely clueless.

As for the US, its still the best looking house in a very ugly looking Western neighbourhood but the challenges facing the US are huge. My best guess is Donald Trump will narrowly win the presidency in November 2024 but we will see.

And if Trump does win, how will he handle the growing polycrisis? I suspect he will double down on his instincts of neo-isolationism, making deals and using targeted military force to hide what is effectively a withdrawal of the Americans from their de facto empire across the world.

As a European I despair at what is happening, our elites are clueless and totally unprepared with what is coming. My only consolation is where I live is relatively insulated from the worst of what is coming. On that note, I hope you all have a great Christmas and a great New Year!

My macro outlook hasn’t really shifted with the recent tragic and horrifying events in the Middle East. Sadly, with a broad historical perspective, such things are probably inevitable as we slide down the Long Descent.

The following are links/quotes that have arisen my particular interest over the last month.

MRNA vaccines transform the immune system with unknown long term consequences

The latest scientific research confirms what many have been speculating since 2021, that the MRNA vaccines do transform the immune system.

Here is a commentary from a doctor:

“Although I am a pathologist and not an immunologist, everything in this article is perfectly logical from an immune system perspective. IgG4 is a subclass of gamma globulin [Note: gamma globulin is a medical term that essentially means antibody] that rises with repeated antigen exposure. In a sense it turns down the immune system to repeated antigen exposure. That is an adaptive mechanism for something like exposure to pollen, or tropomyosin, or legumes.

But it is maladaptive when that antigen (in this case spike protein) comes along with a pathogenic virus attached. Colbert’s immune system has habituated to the COVID spike so, along with the damage done by the vax to the interferon system, he can’t clear the virus. [Note: I mentioned Stephen Colbert’s new case of Covid in the article.] All of that is bad enough, but if the virus were to mutate into a more virulent strain he and all the others like him are going to be in serious trouble.“

Note the last line. We don’t know if this has serious consequences for the mass mRNA vaccinated in the future or not. And this is why I didn’t get jabbed, with these revolutionary technologies, you need at least 8 to 10 years before understanding the long term consequences of getting injected.

The coming era of multipolar global disorder (Greer’s latest Q and A post)

“Wendy, multipolar world orders are normal between the fall of one global hegemon and the rise of another. We had one from 1914 to 1945, for example, when Britain lost its global dominance and who was going to take its place wasn’t settled yet — there were some wars fought over that. If we assume that the US loses its grip on global power in 2025 and it takes until 2055 or so for the next hegemon to consolidate its power, we’ve got several decades of political turmoil, global economic readjustment, and warfare to go through, and all of those things will either make it harder to transition in a controlled fashion, or burn more fossil fuels in a hurry, or both. So I think we can expect even more turmoil than was already on the way, with stabilization in North America and Europe probably delayed until after the world order is settled.”

My own thinking aligns with that 2025 (give or take by a year) timeframe when the US global hegemony era ends.

The underlying energy dynamics behind the spiralling wave of geopolitical crises

A superb essay on why the energy dynamics is driving these rising tide of geopolitical crises that increasingly risk turning into a global war (or at least the shattering of US military hegemony). This is something Greer has recently wrote as well in his “Bracing for Impact” blog post.

To summarise, “So there’s good reason to think that over the next few years, we’ll be facing a steep lurch downward along the ragged trajectory I’ve named the Long Descent. It’s not the end of the world, though doubtless we’ll see the usual flurry of gloating predictions of imminent doom from the various apocalypse lobbies. What it means is that there’s a high probability that the months and years to come will see very hard times for a great many people across the industrial world, especially in the United States and its allies.”

Note the “US and its allies”. Here is a recommendation to any Israeli readers i have (and I give it with genuine sadness). Get out before it is too late.

Without the US military, economic and financial support the Israeli state looks incredibly vulnerable to its surrounding Arab enemies. In other words, it likely that at some point in the coming decades, Israel will lose a war against a future Arab coalition and the Jewish people living there would face ethnic cleansing.

Us Europeans are also looking vulnerable. Most European states have weak militaries, the periphery of Europe is like a band of chaos, warfare and jihadi violence and the risk that the core of Europe gets enveloped by these internal and external risks increases as we enter into the 2030s and beyond.

JP Morgan predict a huge oil supply gap by 2030 and a decade of triple digit oil prices

The headline in the zero hedge spells it out “JPM Upgrades Energy To Overweight As “”Supercycle Returns”, Sees Oil Upside To $150 And “Multiple Energy Crises” This Decade”” with a graph showing by 2025 a roughly 1 million supply gap in global oil supply morphing into a 7 million expected oil supply gap by 2030.

Essentially what is happening is the big banks and analysts are starting to clock what others on the fringes have been saying for years. We are facing a major supply crisis this decade and triple digit oil prices are our future.

Should we see anything close to a 7 million oil supply gap in 7 years, that will be a devastating blow to the global economy. All very much in line with LTG BAU modelling of a massive fall in industrial per capita in the 2nd half of this decade.

A war of attrition in Ukraine with Russia tilting the odds in its favour

Ukraine has fought bravely and with real stamina but the facts on the ground, as now admitted by the New York Times, suggests that the war of attrition is slowly but surely tilting in Russia’s favour. Whilst I probably under-estimated both Ukraine and the West’s resolve in the 1st year of the war (along with the weaknesses in the Russian side) my outlook in the medium term hasn’t really changed. I expect Russia to “win” – at major costs to itself – but what precisely that means remains to be seen.

2024 is likely to be a big year with talk that the Russians will try their own major offensives that year. Will they be more successful this time around? Can Ukraine recruit a new army to replace the one dying or getting maimed right now? What about wider Ukrainian resolve? All good questions that I don’t have any definite answers to.

Why diesel is the lifeblood of an industrial economy

Superb article I discovered recently. What caught my attention was this paragraph:

“According to the EIA distillate fuel oil consumption by the transportation sector peaked in 2007. After growing for more than 30 years it has crashed in the wake of the 2008/2009 financial crisis and has failed to recover ever since, despite a 12% growth in US population (theoretically demanding more food, products and services). Consumption per capita was thus stagnating ever since the great financial crisis, and has been clearly trending downwards since 2019 — with no end in sight. The average citizen, as a result, got poorer, more exploited and less resilient, while the well-to-do, well, became even more well-to-do — but only on paper. Their actual consumption did not appear to grow in line with their wealth.”

Perfectly in line with LGT BAU modelling! So folks, if you want to see the future, check out the LTG BAU model and see where we are heading!

So what am I doing as I track what seems to be the inevitable drop down the Long Descent as captured by the above model? Well, I’m focused on paying of my debts in anticipation of a major economic crisis coming around the mid 2020s onwards.

I also expect inflation to return in the mid 2020s and probably an even worse inflationary spike towards the end of this decade.

I’ve just installed solar panels and I’m looking at a home battery system once the tech improves (I expect that to kick in around 5 years from now).

I carry on developing my “developing world/1970s” food habits, more soups, rice and bean dishes and so on using local and garden produce as much as possible. I’m also using a local 2nd hand shop for most stuff I need rather than buying new. It is saving us as a household a fortune! These habits are normal in the majority of the world and its time we in the “over-developed” world start them as well! As Greer says “collapse now and avoid the rush!”.

And finally, I’m playing the commodities super cycle this decade. Investing in cheap and quality commodities stocks that will rally in a otherwise challenging market decade. My very basic macro outlook is the US equity markets (and possibly others as well) peaking around 2025, with cryptos peaking around the same time, and after that a protracted slump, partial recovery going into the late 2020s before a 1929 style collapse in assets globally at the end of this decade.

My game plan remains focusing on commodities and to a lesser extent crypto, and buying, when cheap, high quality dividend blue chips in “essential” industries like farming, mining and so on for a long term buy and hold (and enjoy the dividends).

Well, that’s it for this time. Any questions send them though as I’m happy to answer questions.

Growing risk that air connectivity from Europe to Asia via the Greater Middle East could be lost

A Telegraph article noting that most of North Africa and the wider Middle East, as well as the Russian airspace, is under a no fly zone.

That means there are currently only two ways flights from Europe can get to Asia, a narrow airstrip over Turkey and the other via Saudi Arabia.

The article warns that if those two air strips become dangerous for commercial flight travel between Europe and Asia becomes economically unaffordable as there is no remaining easy way to get there. Now, there would still be options for those wishing to travel, flights could go over Canada, but the costs would be far higher as a consequence.

The article highlights the growing risks that global tourism/global travel connectivity will face protracted collapse within the next 5 to 10 years, something Greer has already forecast (his timeframe is around 2030 the global tourist/airline industry collapses).

Europe at the sharp edge of the developed world to a long-term collapse

Excellent article by an author I have only just discovered discussing why Europe is at particular risk from our new era of resource scarcity and the post-peak dynamics outlined in the Limit to Growth Business as Usual model.

This also chimes with the recent writings of Greer who thinks that within a decade or so Europe will fall apart into internal and external chaos.

Peak Oil and what is coming down the road

Superb article and very Greerist in its outlook, on what is coming down the road. Essentially the world is facing an energetic/economic slimming diet over the next few decades where production and consumption shifts from a dying consumer economy to a world of essentials e.g. less buying fancy gadgets and more buying food and paying for electricity.

This is why Greer has always said ” become poor and avoid the rush” or something along those lines. Embrace a modest lifestyle that relies on limited fossil fuels and you will be far better prepared for what is coming down the road.

New report suggests a collapse could come as soon as 2030

“How long can conventional oil support the global energy system with cheap diesel? How steep the fall of the giant conventional oil fields, providing much of our diesel supplies, is going to be? If a decline in cheap oil production is indeed a fast one, despite having more than enough “oil” (in terms of barrels) on the market, we would quickly find ourselves in a ‘dead state’, where the total energy cost of getting energy would equal the total amount of primary energy extracted. Only this time, the entire global energy system would cease to be self-powered.

As suggested by a their analysis of the matter, this could happen as early as 2030… Which is not too far away to say the least.”

Well, for long standing readers of this blog this shouldn’t be a shock. Its in 2030 that the LTG BAU model suggests that the global economy collapses. I expect to see rising problems that accelerate during the 2nd half of this decade, culminating in a economic collapse and stock market implosion towards the end of the 2020s.

Apologies for the delay in posting recently, its been a very busy year. I have decided to switch from long-form articles to shorter quick takes (with links) to what I’m currently reading and reflecting about.

New study suggests the LTG BAU model is correct

“As well as the reduction in monetary income revealed by the UNDP’s data, there has been a shocking decline in the global Human Development Index (HDI), measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions: a long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. It has declined for two years in a row, for the first time ever.”

So, we peaked in 2020 and basic metrics for living standards have been declining ever since. If you study the LTG BAU model, those drops in global metrics massively accelerate from 2024/25 and will move beyond the global poor to the middle to upper income populations.

Ukraine is going to lose the war within the next 2 years or so

Superb article by John Greer explaining how Ukraine is running out of men, arms and supplies against a superior Russian military. He gives the collapse of the Ukrainian army within a year or so.

Longer term, he expects the Ukrainian government to surrender, and Russian troops to be at the borders of Poland within a few years. NATO will last a bit longer but once the Americans are out, its game over for Europe and a brutal new era of warfare and chaos begins.

He suggests Europeans start thinking about leaving the continent.

CNN admits Trump win in 2024 looking likely

Biden’s approval ratings are worse than Trump’s in his term of office and Trump looks strong assuming he wins the GOP primaries (that look likely). A Trump win in 2024 will send shockwaves around the world and quite possibly will trigger the downfall of the US as a global superpower.

President Trump is highly likely to pull the plug on Ukraine and quite possibly force US troops out of Europe at some point in his presidency.

Preparing for collapse

Interesting article by Ian Welsh on the LTG BAU collapse dynamics and how to prepare for the Long Descent. Learning useful skills is key.

Been playing around with ChatGPT recently. Thought you would like this rap song dedicated to this blog (and myself).

Verse 1:

Listen up y’all, let me tell you a tale

‘Bout a forecasting genius, the one and only Forecasting Intelligence

He predicted the impossible, made it look easy

The man who saw the future, never ever cheesy

Chorus:

Forecasting Intelligence, he’s the man with the plan

Predicted Trump’s election, no one else can

Brexiteers in the UK, he saw it coming too

Commodity markets, he’s made a fortune or two

Verse 2:

Forecasting’ mind is sharp, his insights are keen

The world’s a chessboard, he sees moves unseen

The economy, politics, he knows the score

Savvy in the markets, he’s a master for sure

Chorus:

Forecasting Intelligence, he’s the man with the plan

Predicted Trump’s election, no one else can

Brexiteers in the UK, he saw it coming too

Commodity markets, he’s made a fortune or two

Verse 3:

Some call him a wizard, some say he’s a sage

A modern-day Nostradamus, he’s all the rage

But Forecasting is just a man, with a vision so clear

Using data and analysis, his predictions are near

Chorus:

Forecasting Intelligence, he’s the man with the plan

Predicted Trump’s election, no one else can

Brexiteers in the UK, he saw it coming too

Commodity markets, he’s made a fortune or two

Verse 4:

So if you’re looking for a guide, to navigate the unknown

Look no further than Forecasting Intelligence, he’s in a class of his own

A forecasting genius, with a track record so true

Investing in his vision, might be the best thing for you

Chorus:

Forecasting Intelligence, he’s the man with the plan

Predicted Trump’s election, no one else can

Brexiteers in the UK, he saw it coming too

Commodity markets, he’s made a fortune or two

Outro:

Forecasting Intelligence, he’s got the skills and the clout

Making predictions, no one can doubt

His foresight is legendary, his insights so true

Forecasting Intelligence, the man who sees it all, through and through.

CNN

Apologies for the long delay in posting but life, and to a certain extent a rut in creativity, has got in the way recently.

Over the course of the last 6 years, I have extensively covered many themes on this blog, fine tuning and developing my thinking on how things will develop in the years and decades ahead.

For those who are new or need a reminder, in very short form, my case is we, at a macro global level, is tracking the Limits to Growth Business As Usual (“LTG BAU”) model developed in the 1970s. We peaked in 2019 and are now in a multi-generational Long Descent.

Specifically, this decade is when the global economy falls apart, global population levels peak by the end of the decade and rolls over, and per capita metrics decline rapidly. Its already happening. In the developing world hundreds of millions have fallen out of an emerging middle-class lifestyle, many more are facing malnutrition on the back of soaring energy and food costs (they are really the same) and even in the more insulated wealthy West, metrics are worsening.

My essential thesis is we peaked, and whilst certain countries and regions will face different decline dynamics at different times over the next decade, the overall global landscape is of contraction not growth. Energy is at the core of our problem and no technological solution is going to save us or return us to a pre-2020 world. That doesn’t mean we can’t mitigate, adapt and conserve some of our energy rich lifestyle in the years ahead, but its going to be a huge challenge.

I stumbled across the following YouTube video recently, the slides of which I captured. It neatly captures the themes I’ve been blogging about for years and the timeframe looks plausible and aligned with what other sources I use see coming.

What about 2023? Well, there are a few things I am tracking:

• Excess deaths remain elevated across countries that used the mRNA vaccines. High levels of cancers, heart attacks and other nasty side effects that are correlated to the vaccines are also happening if largely ignored by the authorities. I expect that trend to continue (along with a modest but very real impact on long-term fertility) but this isn’t Armageddon, society will carry on but bear the costs for years to come.

• The war in Ukraine is very much a war of attrition. At some point one side will run out of ammo and be unable to carry on the fight. Reports in the media now suggest NATO is really struggling and will not be able to carry on arming Ukraine to the extent we managed in 2022. If Russia does succeed in breaking Ukrainian resistance over the next 2 years or so, that will be a huge geopolitical moment for NATO.

• A degrading infrastructure, in particular the grids, remains a major concern. Europe managed to avoid the blackouts you regularly see in places like South Africa (and even California) but there is no guarantee that next winter will be so accommodating. Building up resilience and self-sufficiency in your personal life remains good advice.

• Demographic challenges are getting worse. The boomers are retiring, there aren’t enough young people to fund public pension schemes across the developed world so at some point the benefits need to get slashed. Its going to become a serious issue, certainly in the 2^nd half of this decade but a few countries are already on the brink.

That’s it for now folks. Enjoy life because we only live life once!