French presidential elections – final forecast

BBC

I watched the bulk of the French election debate on Wednesday evening. Overall, I felt that Marine Le Pen (MLP) edged in overall performance, coming across as softer, more human and focused on the economic and cultural suffering of the working to lower middle classes.

President Macron, was aloof, arrogant, technocratic and in his own way brilliant. He understands numbers, holds his own in highly technical debates and during certain policy debates, clearly had the upper hand. What he lacked was empathy towards ordinary people and it shined through over and over again. He performed ok, he didn’t implode but nor did he help his image as a president of the rich.

The snap polls suggested that Macron had won the debate. Well, I’m not so sure about that, but did the debates move the needle sufficiently to get MLP the final votes to win the election? Probably not in my view.

Reviewing the final polls, one out suggests that Macron is extending his lead against MLP.

The most successful pollsters in the 1st round, the polling firm, Odoxa, who captured the MLP vote the best, have published their final poll.

It’s within the margin of error, but one has to include that the clear and likely winner is Emmanuel Macron, in line with my forecast at the beginning of the year.

There is a chance that she can pull off the political shock of the 21st century but it strikes me as unlikely. For the record, I cashed out of my MLP bet a few days ago based on the fact that all pollsters have shown a consolidation of support for Macron and away from MLP.

My overall forecast is that Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential election, probably narrowly.

French presidential elections – final forecast

French elections: short update

Financial Times

The 1st round of the French presidential elections are coming this weekend and I thought I will give a short update on the state of play.

I predicted, at the beginning of the year, with a moderate degree of conviction, that Emmanuel Macron will narrowly win the election in the 2nd round. However, I noted that there was a good chance that Le Pen could win against the odds given the fact that she was within striking distance of winning according to the polls back in January 2022.

Well since then, the polling has tightened further, and the most recent set of polls show Le Pen within the margin of error in the late 40’s versus Macron in the early 50’s in 2nd round polling. Indeed, one poll, on Thursday from a very reputable and reliable pollster, shows Marine Le Pen defeating Macron by 50.5% to 49.50%!

That may, or may not be a rogue poll, we shall see, but it is looking very likely that Le Pen will face off Macron in the 2nd round elections in two weeks.

Right now, the election is too close to call and whilst I will stick with my forecast of a Macron win, the chances of a Le Pen upset grow by the day as ordinary French voters, crushed by inflationary price surges triggered by the war and the Western sanctions on Russia turn on Macron.

On a final note, those who took my advice and placed a exchange bet on Le Pen’s odds will be laughing now. I got in at 12 to 1 odds and these have now shrunk to nearly 4 to 1. I am already sitting on a modest profit and that should grow should Le Pen get into the 2nd round this Sunday.

French elections: short update