UK general election final forecast

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Allianz Global Investors

 

“On the @YouGov MRP: it puts Tory seats midpoint at 339, vs 310 in 2017, when the result was 318; similar accuracy this time would mean 347 seats, majority of 44”

John Rentoul tweet (10 December 2019)

 

The British people are the brink of deciding the fate of this great country.

The polls indicate that the most likely outcome is a Conservative majority, although the scale of undecided voters out there suggests either a hung parliament or Tory landslide remain outlier outcomes. The YouGov MRP poll, which came closest to accurately forecasting the June 2017 election, released last night its updated forecast of a Tory seat tally of 339*. This is within the ballpark of other pollsters and election models.

*- a party requires 326 seats to have a majority in the House of Commons.

Should this election come down to a presidential-style choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, there is only one winner. Boris Johnson.

Corbyn’s net satisfaction ratings are horrendous even factoring in that Boris is also relatively unpopular compared to previous leader’s comparisons. This guarantees that the Tories are the largest party but not necessarily that the Tories will win an outright majority.

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Financial Times

 

One of the myths of 2017 was that the pollsters never saw the hung parliament outcome coming. That is factually incorrect. Some of the pollsters did. At the time, I worked for a major private bank who predicted, based on the public polls available, a hung parliament outcome. Therefore, it is significant that the polling overwhelmingly indicates a tiny/small Tory majority to a landslide victory.

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Politico

 

My final election forecast is the following:

Cons                      344

Lab                         234

LD                           13

BxP                        0

SNP                        34

PC                           4

I have increased the tally of Scottish Tories seats from 9 (YouGov forecast) to 17, which in turn bumps up the overall Tory seat tally, taking into consideration a further tightening in the polls since the YouGov poll was published.

The YouGov forecast in 2017 did not anticipate the huge surge in Unionist tactical voting in marginal seats across Scotland, which meant that the Scottish Tories gained double the expected seat tally in the actual election. I suspect that something similar will happen this time around.

Ian Smart, who accurately forecast the 2017 general election result in Scotland, is predicting the following outcome in this general election.

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Ian Smart blog

 

Whilst this is my baseline prediction, I do think there is a risk of a late surge by undecided voters, which could destroy that Tory majority dream. The shift this week from Brexit to the NHS has helped solidify the Labour vote and the odd reaction of Boris Johnson to the picture of the boy in the hospital has damaged the Tories among Labour Leave and undecided voters.

Nadeem Walayat, a forecaster who accurately predicted Trump, Brexit and the 2015 general election, is forecasting a Tory seat tally of 326. That would be a Tory majority of one.

Alternatively, the message of “get Brexit done” could ensure the Tories do better than expected, pushing them towards landslide territory. Anecdotally there is talk of lots of “shy Tory” voters in the red wall so we could see bigger Tory swings across the Midlands and the North than the polls are picking up. Undecided Tory Remain voters are also apparently slowly shifting to the Tories. The tightening of the polls will likely scare more undecided Tory Remainers and soft Liberal/Tory voters to voting Tory to keep out Jeremy Corbyn.

My lack of a strong conviction, coupled by the poor betting odds, is why I have not recommended attempting to bet on the Tory seat tally in this election. You should only bet when you have a strong conviction in your call.

Therefore, I am sticking with my forecast of a good performance by the Scottish Tories but have ditched my earlier forecast of the Liberals sweeping across central London. Jo Swinson’s disastrous campaign and the late surge to Labour among Remain voters has put an end to that Liberal dream.

We will see whether this forecast turns out to be true tomorrow evening.

UK general election final forecast