“We will get power, and then we will implement what is necessary…. Then we will give the directive that the three big M’s – Mohammed, Muezzin and Minaret – end at the Bosporus.”
Bjorn Hocke of Alternative fur Deutschland
“I expect mass migrations on the very large scale once climate change goes beyond certain levels, as warm periods in the past have caused extreme droughts in what’s now the Muslim Middle East. If people have a choice between migration and death, they’ll migrate — and so we’re talking about entire national populations on the move, more likely than not armed with everything the armies of their former nations had to hand.
Europe is utterly unprepared to deal with such a thing — due to many decades of blind trust in the United States for their defense, most European countries have feeble, poorly trained, poorly equipped militaries that have no experience in actual combat conditions. I see phenomena such as Daesh and Boko Haram as the first stirrings of the tsunami to come.
Will there be fighting? You bet, just as there was fighting when Islam first expanded across the Middle East, but by the time the fighting ends, I expect the borders of the EU to change in roughly the same way that the borders of the Byzantine Empire changed in the wake of the great Muslim invasions — and as usual in such situations, woe to the vanquished…”
John Michael Greer (January 2018 Open Post)
I would like you to read the above quote from John Greer.
And again, so that the full impact of his forecast is absorbed… especially for my European readership.
The spectre of mass migration during a period of changing climate change, droughts and a worsening scarcity in water, food and energy is not a far-fetched geopolitical fantasy but the most likely scenario facing Europe in the coming decades.
Indeed, the Guardian reported last year that “Merkel fears that long term demographic trends mean 100 million Africans could come to Europe driven by climate change, poverty and Europe is wholly unprepared”. Austrian military intelligence warned that up to 15 million African migrants could try and enter Europe by 2020. Similar leaks from secret reports prepared by other European intelligence services have been published in the media which highlight the awareness of this mega-trend within the highest European political and security circles.
During my recent review of Nafeez Ahmed book which covers the inter-connected crises threatening the global economy, e.g. climate change, resource scarcity and global debt, I referenced the potential time-frames when worsening climate change will trigger a mass flight from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This vast tropical area will become uninhabitable by 2030-2040, due to prolonged heat waves and dust storms leading to mega-migrations into the cooler European landmass.
John Greer’s grim prediction at the beginning of this year strikes me as terrifyingly plausible given what is already been discussed at the highest levels within the chancelleries of Europe. What I intend to do next is to give a potential scenario of what is likely to happen over the course of the next two decades with a focus on Europe for this particular post.
The 2015-2016 refugee crisis, which has abated somewhat last year (although reduced numbers of refugees and economic migrants have continued to flow across the Mediterranean) shows how hundreds of thousands of civilians can cross vast borders within a matter of months. It was a sneak preview into a dark future.
Imagine we are now in the year 2032. Climate change has got far worse since the dawn of the century and years of heat waves and droughts across the tropics has led to a spiraling economic crisis, low-level famine and civil unrest on a bigger scale then the so-called Arab Spring in the early 2010’s. Arab and African governments, watching growing numbers of their citizens desperately attempt to get to Europe, arrange a secret conference where they discuss the crisis. The consensus, from the leading policymakers and guided by climate scientists, is that the region is doomed due to climate change and the only option is to leave for better climates.
A secret multi-national operation is hatched, led by the Arab League, to prepare for the invasion of the one continent that can act as a future homeland for the desperate Muslim masses of the MENA region, Europe. Over the next 18 months, governments arrange for the remaining physical capital and wealth to be shifted into relative safe havens in the Americas and East Asia, the funds of the states invested into the remaining national armies and the civilian population prepared for war. Clerics and the mosques play a key role in preparing the male youth on the coming war against the European infidels, a worthy jihad and a fight to the death in the name of the Prophet Mohammed and Allah.
Irregular Islamist pirates in the Mediterranean prepare the way, harassing the weak navies of the European Union (EU) and disrupting trade whilst the nations of Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey and Libya build a vast fleet of small ships ready to cross the seas. As the seas warm in the spring of 2034, the calls for jihad arise across the minarets of the Muslim world.
Whilst the civilian population are mobilised, taking their essentials, including guns, machetes, water, gold and anything else of portable value for the epic migration, the coastal towns and cities are rammed with small boats ready to cross the waters to southern Spain, Italy and Greece. The special forces and armed solders of Operation Saladin are ready to act as the advance guard of a massive population movement into the heart of Europe.
By the 2030’s, the Muslim population of Europe will be bigger then currently estimated, and will be concentrated in the major cities of western Europe. Whilst the majority of Muslim European citizens are loyal, polls suggest that a significant minority have ambivalent or negative loyalties to their host country.
It is likely, in the build-up of the armed invasion of southern Europe, that those jihadi cells will be activated to cause mass mayhem to distract European governments and their security services from the impending threat. Whether or not the jihadi terrorist plots are stopped or not, the attention of the authorities will be inwardly focused on domestic security.
Physical geography doesn’t change and the routes of an armed mass Muslim migration into Europe will be familiar to those who have followed the refugee crisis over the past few years. The key routes of the Muslim armada will be the following;
- Crossing the Straits of Gibraltar into the historically Islamic lands of the fabled Al- Andalus, crushing the Rock of Gibraltar and heading towards the Pyrenees mountains, the natural barrier at the Spanish-French borders. These armies will be following the path of the legendary Abdul Rahman Al Ghafiqi in the 7th century AD.
- The second key route will be from the city of Tunis to the horn of Italy, principally Sicily but also potentially the French island of Corsica to land in what will likely be the 2030’s to be the Muslim majority city of Marseille in France. I would imagine that isolated islands like Malta will be starved into surrender by the Muslim navies once they overwhelm the resistance of EU naval forces. Once naval superiority is achieved, a huge naval operation to transport hundreds of thousands of armed Muslim invaders into Italy would commence with the goal of conquering the capital of Rome, the citadel of the global Catholic Church and the ancient capital of the Roman Empire.
- The final route will be through Turkey, crossing the Greek islands and heading northwards through the western Balkans into central Europe. The Greek military is a formidable force and would need to be vanquished before the Balkans route opens up for the Muslim invaders.
When one looks at the militaries of Europe, it is startling to see how few spend 2% or more of their national budget on defence. The only countries that spend the minimum NATO standard on military defence on the borderlands facing the Muslim south are Greece, with France in second place. The bulk of southern Europe can be considered military pygmies. The global rankings list for military firepower place Egypt in 10th place, Saudi Arabia in 24th and Algeria in 25th, indicating that a number of the national armies of the MENA region are not to be dismissed lightly.
A likely course of events will be that despite ferocious local resistance, the sheer scale of the invasion will see Muslim armies seize control of the bulk of Spain, the Mediterranean islands and assuming Turkey joins the war, the fall of Greece to the Islamic tsunami.
The Mediterranean will become a warzone, with naval battles and a huge armada of ships transporting initially the troops and later on the armed civilians to the landing grounds of southern Spain, Italy and mainland Greece. I suspect that the French military will be busy battling urban jihadi insurgencies in their big cities including Paris and fending off incursions by Islamic special forces into their southern coast.
Should Greece be militarily overwhelmed, the path will be clear for the millions of armed Muslims to cross through the western Balkans into Vienna. This will likely trigger the entry of the Russian Federation into the bubbling cauldron, in defence of their historic Slavic allies, the Serbs and Bulgarians. Expect to see a huge Russian army cross either by sea or land, into the western and eastern Balkans to battle the Muslim invaders coming northwards. In the process, much of central and south-eastern Europe will remerge as a de facto Russian sphere of influence.
One can therefore imagine a scenario whereby despite huge numbers, the Muslim armies become bogged down, like the Turks centuries ago, within the mountainous Balkans with the locals being financially and militarily supported by the Russian army.
Western Europe is a different matter. Whilst the United Kingdom still has a respected military, it is unlikely to become heavily involved in the fighting and will be busy securing the island defences and combating the internal jihadi threat. The most likely strong military powers in the 2030’s, France and Switzerland, will be key to the future of western Europe. The French have a large standing army, will have a young generation reared in military subscription and a shadow para-army of nationalists ready for war.
It is therefore likely that the French will crush any ethnic uprisings in their cities, with likely mass bloodshed and killings, and prevent the Muslim armies conquering southern France. The Alps will form another key defence, which will become a rallying point across central and northern Europe, with a multi-national European army joining the formidable Swiss military to keep the Muslim invaders out.
On a balance of probabilities, I think the French and Swiss defences will hold, just, with the critical assistance of the viable armies of Poland, Germany and the United Kingdom. However, it could be a close-run thing as the Muslims will literally have nothing to lose. In this climate, expect to see politicians and would-be Charles Martel warlords rise to power across Europe and those which have a long record of warning about the threat posed by Islam will likely be in a strong position to win power (including the AfD in Germany).
Should the natural defences of the Pyrenees and Alpine mountains fall to the Muslim armies, then much of central and western Europe will be exposed to the conquering armies of Islam.
Europe will become entombed in a new Islamist Dark Age.
As Greer warns in his blog, it’s entirely possible that this Shari’a dominated Europe could last centuries before being followed “…by a Reconquista on the Spanish model, with Russia and Scandinavia filling the roles of the northern provinces of Spain”.
You have been warned.