This is a new feature of my blog and is not intended to be a deep dive analysis into politics. Instead, I will present what I think is an opportunity to make a profit in the political betting markets.
As a disclaimer, political betting is about probabilities and there is no guarantee that you will make profit from taking bets. You should only bet on what you can afford to lose.
In line with my previous Brexit updates, I continue to forecast that Boris Johnson will win the Tory leadership contest. I have now also concluded that the most likely scale of his victory will be between 70 to 79%, with a tentative prediction around the mid-70’s.
Recent polls, conducted by Conservative Home and Yougov, have indicated that Boris is going to win around 67% of the vote. The huge gaffe committed by Jeremy Hunt over fox hunting has damaged him at this critical stage of the leadership contest when Tory members are starting to vote en masse.
Wavering Tory members are more likely to vote for Boris given that Hunt’s pro-fox hunting comments have only strengthened the perception that Hunt is Continuity May.
The latest poll in the Daily Mail today shows that Johnson has now crashed through the 70% mark and is likely to win by 75% of the vote. There is a core anti-Boris tendency within the Tory membership so it is unlikely, although certainly not impossible, that Boris may end up with 80% or more.
Taking a probabilistic and risk-based approach to this, given the current odds (which are likely to change within 48 hours), I would say that there is currently an excellent opportunity to make a profit by betting on a margin of victory between 70 to 79% on betfair.
For those who want to play it safer, they can also place a bet between the 60 to 69% margin of victory, which ensures that you will make a profit, either way, depending on the amount you place on both trades (assuming that Boris wins between 60 to 79% of the vote).
You will need to register with betfair to do these trades and I can’t provide any advice for those of my readership who are outside the UK (different countries have different rules on gambling).
Just remember, this is betting and there is no guarantee that you will get your money back! Best of luck!