Thing are moving even faster than I anticipated!

So, some kind of embryonic deal has already been agreed, it seems, between Russia and America given the speed of the planned summit to be held between President Putin and President Trump in Saudi Arabia (as soon as the end of the month).

The bigger macro picture is the Americans are getting out of the global empire business and shifting back to their North American continental core. I saw this tweet today on X saying the following “The U.S. will likely announce a massive withdrawal of American soldiers from Europe.” Christoph Heusgen, former German ambassador to the UN, head of the MSC. Said before the MSC but tells us a lot nonetheless.”

This is a game-changing moment of historical proportions. The US Defence Secretary Peter Hegsworth on 12th February declared that the US is no longer focused on European security; effectively declaring the end of NATO.

Folks, the long European break from history is over. Welcome back Europe.

This post captures the macro geopolitical shift the best, “At this juncture, the U.S. would “take its geopolitical football and go home,” retreating inward to fortify a continental empire, securing North America and extending influence deeper into Central America”.

The future of American power can be captured in this map.

Without American muscle, Europe is largely defenceless in its capacity to defend itself.

Even the United Kingdom, one of the more more robust militaries of Europe, is in a dire state as per this article.

“It is impossible to exaggerate the importance of this situation. As matters stand, most of the Royal Navy’s attack submarines are unable to undertake operations; the Royal Marines are reliant on one landing ship with inadequate command and control capabilities; and the Army’s principal combat formation, 3rd (UK) Division, would struggle to generate even a brigade-strength deployment. The new Ajax armoured fighting vehicle will not reach full operational capability until 2028, eight years behind schedule, with its wheeled Boxer counterpart reaching that milestone in 2032.”

Longer term, demographics and Europe’s near abroad suggest a dangerous security environment for much of Europe. A rising proportion of the population is Muslim and many of those younger Muslims are Islamist in their outlook, which poll and after poll shows. By mid-century, it is quite conceivable that our biggest cities in Europe will be majority Muslim for the under 30s. Sharia parties will be kingmakers in big cities, and possibly even national level politics.

At the same time, the long-term penetration of jihadi and Islamist ideologies by the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) grows, year by year, sponsored and supported by Turkey and Qatar. In fact, it seems that we are already seeing a stealth alliance between Turkey, Qatar, the MB and Al-Qaeda, a new Sunni radical axis, that seeks to overthrow Egypt, Jordan and eventually invade Europe. As John Greer recently wrote on his blog, it wouldn’t surprise him to see Turkish armies at the gates of Vienna at some point in the future this century.

War is returning to Europe and it isn’t just the revanchist Russians to worry about. If Islamist forces manage to gain control of Egypt’s formidable conventional military, combined with allied countries across the Arab world (and beyond) Europe will be at risk. This is unlikely to happen anytime soon, but at some in the decades to come, its a plausible scenario.

The world is seeing the Americans withdrawing, and ramifications will be huge in the Middle East and East Asia as much as Europe in the years to come. Everything is shifting.

Welcome to history folks. The holiday was fun but its now over.