Hi all,

I hope you have all had a great year! Here are my predictions for 2026:

• The US AI bubble peaks in 2026. My specific prediction is the S&P 500 peaks around 7,500 and OpenAI IPO comes in at a trillion around mid 2026, after which the froth starts to go off US AI stocks. Whilst I don’t expect the market to crash next year, the risks are growing medium term and my precise end of year forecast for the S&P 500 is 7,100. ¹

• Russia and Ukraine agree a deal, brokered by America. I have less confidence that this will happen as there’s a risk the war will drag on into 2027. At a macro scale, my wider view is historians will later date the end of the Ukrainian war as the pivotal moment when the US seriously withdraw from European security commitments.

• Oil spikes lower to the 40s easing inflationary forces in the US. I see this as a capitulation moment for oil markets and a strong and unexpected rebound will occur later on this decade as unexpectedly strong demand globally and supply constraints kick in from 2027 onwards. For the brave, oil companies will be a good buy at some point in 2026 at the point of extreme negativity in the markets to the sector.

• Robotics replaces AI as the most exciting sector. I predict a IPhone moment for robotics next year as robotics slowly become good enough to become an accessory for the ultra-wealthy. Whether the dream of a home robot who can effectively do all the chores ever becomes realistic I remain sceptical but we should get a bit closer in 2026. I wouldn’t be surprised if its a China robotics company that achieves the IPhone moment for the world of robotics.

• Bitcoin will end the year substantially below 100k. The crypto market will drop hard in 2026, after a rebound to the 100k area early in 2026 as the space faces a brutal multi year bear market. Most of the many alt-coins are heading to zero.

• Gold and silver are at or near their all-time peaks and will disappoint in 2026. The smart money liquidated their holdings as gold surged to 5k and silver 80 in late 2025/early 2026.

• Trump Spring in the western hemisphere. My forecast is at least one of the anti-American regimes (either Cuba or Venezuela) will fall in 2026 which will be a major win for the Trump Administration. The bigger picture is the withdrawal of the Americans back to their hemispheric sphere of influence.

• The Republicans lose control of the House but narrowly keep the Senate. A relatively easy prediction but I don’t see any surprises here. Affordability remains a key issue for voters and they will punish the incumbent party in power in 2026.