NBC news

So, we have the US presidential elections coming in November 2024. Now, I’m a US politics geek but even I am struggling to get even remotely excited or even interested by the prospect of these two elderly men fighting it out, again for the role of Commander in Chief.

And I’m not even American.

Polls show that around 6 in 10 Americans do not want a Trump versus Biden repeat.

The third party alternative, No Labels, have published a great memo called “House of Cards” which outline just how unpopular both sides are to so many of the American people. It is worth reading in full which you can do here.

No Labels

As you can see, there is a theoretical path for a third party party to come through this election. And there is signs of a growing backlash against the two legacy parties, note how the most recent meta polling shows a surge in interest in “Others”.

Reviewing the mainstream media, the overwhelming consensus is that most voters will end up voting for whatever is their “lesser evil” candidate, whether Trump or Biden – assuming that Trump wins the primaries which looks very likely – and given how tight the race is, it could go either way.

This post isn’t a forecast – because I simply don’t have a high conviction on this – but I do have a nagging wonder, what if, a third party can build momentum in 2024, and start attracting polling numbers above 15% or so.

In that scenario, with the two lead candidates both sinking in the polls and say No Labels enjoying a huge surge in the polls after their April Convention, maybe we could see a third party force seriously threaten both the Democrats and Republicans in November?

I don’t know. But it is something I will be monitoring closely this year. As my American cousin said to me the other day, “That about sums it up for me. There’s got to be SOMEBODY better than the current 2 bad choices.”

What do you all think? Would love to hear the feedback.

p.s. I don’t recommend political betting (and in some places like America it is illegal) but where I live there are no restrictions. I placed a 400 to 1 bet Joe Manchin will become the next president. Yep, wild and highly unlikely, but, he is a plausible candidate for No Labels and the underlying polling does suggest there is an opportunity for a centrist third party candidate who appeals to both sides, to come through (thanks to AI can already visualise the future! :)).

We’ll see.