Its nearing the end of 2023 and a comment at a recent work meeting struck me. We were discussing 2024 and someone said that they hoped it would be better than 2023, after which someone else replied that we have been saying that since 2020 and each year it gets worse not better.

I found it fascinating.

And interestingly perfectly in line with my good old friend, Limits to Growth Business as Usual model that has just been recalibrated.

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The full article can be found here but the summary of the changes are essentially “the main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future.”

So, basically we are on track, more or less. The key lines to track are the hard lines (not the dotted ones) as they are the updated model based on empirical data. The good news is food production is facing a less disastrous drop in production but other than that to me it is basically the same. That industrial output drop is terrifying.

What it suggests is that global industrial output has already started to collapse but we are in the very early stages and it will massively accelerate from now. Maybe geopolitics will drive that, or exploding oil prices or probably a mix of many factors (including demand destruction, disruption of JIT supply chains, wars, piracy and the shutdown of key trading chokepoints like we are already seeing around the Suez Canal.

Its worth quoting elements of the report to highlight what we are facing;

• “The model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable.”
• “This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak.”

So there you go. We are here, the cliff is directly ahead of us and all my years of warnings about what is coming ahead is now upon us (it appears). I hope you are prepared mentally and physically as much as you can be given the gut wrenching impact that it will hit us, in varying degrees, at a personal and geographical level over the rest of this decade and beyond.

For those who want to know about what is likely this decade, I suggest you read this blog post by me, here and here.

In terms of what else I’m tracking, the turn around in Ukraine is quite stunning. We now have mainstream media openly talking about the possibility of a Russian victory, something I have long maintained was a likely outcome from this war.

And in the dissident media, articles that increasingly highlight just how much a paper tiger NATO is in military terms. This article here talks about NATO and how utterly useless most European militaries are with even the US increasingly facing challenges.

Or as this writer puts it, the strategic nightmare facing Europe is as follows: “One result of this has been that public, and even expert, opinion, scarcely noticed the running down of conventional forces in Europe. Commentators recently seemed astonished to discover that the massive NATO forces of the Cold War had evaporated, and that NATO as a whole could scarcely muster a dozen light mechanised brigades, capable of fighting or a week or two before their supplies and ammunition were exhausted.

In theory, massive reinforcements might come from the US, but only by bringing back into service mothballed 1980s tanks and finding and training crews for them and their supporting arms, which, even if it were possible, at best would take years and cost a fortune. So ironically, NATO now confronts the one contingency for which it was expressly designed—a powerful and heavily militarised Russia confronting a weak Europe—at a time when it has never been less able to meet it.” 

Whilst President Putin is the biggest threat to Europe, longer term, other risks, including a large conventional armies of places like Türkiye, Egypt and Algeria could come to threaten a disarmed Europe. The places least at risk are those furthest away from the Muslim world and Russia, e.g. north-west Europe (Norway, UK and Ireland primarily).

It looks increasingly likely that Ukraine will aim to draft hundreds of thousands of young men, women and anyone else they can rally to build one final major army to defend their positions in the East. It is looking likely – although we will see – that the Russians will make major advances in 2024 across the eastern front.

Once it becomes clear that the West has effectively lost this proxy war with Russia, it will increase the power shift from a declining US led West to a neo-Axis alliance across the globe. One will also expect to see increasingly aggressive moves by all sorts of actors, both state and non-state, against America and its closest allies in 2024 and beyond.

Difficult times are coming and our politicians are largely clueless.

As for the US, its still the best looking house in a very ugly looking Western neighbourhood but the challenges facing the US are huge. My best guess is Donald Trump will narrowly win the presidency in November 2024 but we will see.

And if Trump does win, how will he handle the growing polycrisis? I suspect he will double down on his instincts of neo-isolationism, making deals and using targeted military force to hide what is effectively a withdrawal of the Americans from their de facto empire across the world.

As a European I despair at what is happening, our elites are clueless and totally unprepared with what is coming. My only consolation is where I live is relatively insulated from the worst of what is coming. On that note, I hope you all have a great Christmas and a great New Year!