Financial Times
The 1st round of the French presidential elections are coming this weekend and I thought I will give a short update on the state of play.
I predicted, at the beginning of the year, with a moderate degree of conviction, that Emmanuel Macron will narrowly win the election in the 2nd round. However, I noted that there was a good chance that Le Pen could win against the odds given the fact that she was within striking distance of winning according to the polls back in January 2022.
Well since then, the polling has tightened further, and the most recent set of polls show Le Pen within the margin of error in the late 40’s versus Macron in the early 50’s in 2nd round polling. Indeed, one poll, on Thursday from a very reputable and reliable pollster, shows Marine Le Pen defeating Macron by 50.5% to 49.50%!
That may, or may not be a rogue poll, we shall see, but it is looking very likely that Le Pen will face off Macron in the 2nd round elections in two weeks.
Right now, the election is too close to call and whilst I will stick with my forecast of a Macron win, the chances of a Le Pen upset grow by the day as ordinary French voters, crushed by inflationary price surges triggered by the war and the Western sanctions on Russia turn on Macron.
On a final note, those who took my advice and placed a exchange bet on Le Pen’s odds will be laughing now. I got in at 12 to 1 odds and these have now shrunk to nearly 4 to 1. I am already sitting on a modest profit and that should grow should Le Pen get into the 2nd round this Sunday.
forecastingintelligence 