French presidential elections – final forecast


I watched the bulk of the French election debate on Wednesday evening. Overall, I felt that Marine Le Pen (MLP) edged in overall performance, coming across as softer, more human and focused on the economic and cultural suffering of the working to lower middle classes.

President Macron, was aloof, arrogant, technocratic and in his own way brilliant. He understands numbers, holds his own in highly technical debates and during certain policy debates, clearly had the upper hand. What he lacked was empathy towards ordinary people and it shined through over and over again. He performed ok, he didn’t implode but nor did he help his image as a president of the rich.

The snap polls suggested that Macron had won the debate. Well, I’m not so sure about that, but did the debates move the needle sufficiently to get MLP the final votes to win the election? Probably not in my view.

Reviewing the final polls, one out suggests that Macron is extending his lead against MLP.

The most successful pollsters in the 1st round, the polling firm, Odoxa, who captured the MLP vote the best, have published their final poll.

It’s within the margin of error, but one has to include that the clear and likely winner is Emmanuel Macron, in line with my forecast at the beginning of the year.

There is a chance that she can pull off the political shock of the 21st century but it strikes me as unlikely. For the record, I cashed out of my MLP bet a few days ago based on the fact that all pollsters have shown a consolidation of support for Macron and away from MLP.

My overall forecast is that Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential election, probably narrowly.

French presidential elections – final forecast

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