Hi all,

Well, 2026 is proving to be an interesting year! This quick takes will be focused on Iran and wider macro viewpoints.

Who is winning the war?

This is proving to be a very hard subject to answer but I will try. Whilst calling the war is obviously very hard I have been searching for credible observers who I can lean on to give me a clue. The best author to date Stephen Bryen who latest summary of the war can be found here and aligns with my own basecase (so far).

“Overall air defense systems and attacks on Iranian assets are paying off. Systems that are fully integrated are the future of effective air defense systems. Russian, Chinese and Iranian air defenses, on the other hand, mostly did not survive attacks from the US and Israel, apparently using stand off weapons to knock them out. From a broader strategic perspective this indicates that western systems (mainly US and Israel, plus some joint systems like NASAMS) are considerably better than their Russian and Chinese counterparts.

The major US and NATO concern is there are not enough interceptor missiles for a sustained conflict, meaning that (a) production of interceptor missiles must be stepped up and (b) that the best defense is an effective offense, that is, the best solution is to destroy the enemy assets on the ground before they can be used.

One can expect that most of Iran’s missile forces will be effectively neutralized in the next week, opening Iran up to systematic destruction of its military installations and equipment, strategic and tactical communications, and key regime support units (especially IRGC and police units). Iran’s naval assets also are being liquidated and naval bases, including Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar, severely damaged. This means that Iran’s ability to shut down the Straits of Hormuz and Gulf transit of oil is, at best, only a short term threat.”

I recommend you sign up for his free blog.

I also recommend this macro blog post on our wider global crisis, its a really good read. The author rarely posts but it is always fascinating reading. You can read it here.

On that note John Greers latest post is also a cracker about the end of the corporate-bureaucratic age which you can find here.