Its nearly that time of the four year presidential cycle again! The polls are close, very close in some of the swing states and tensions are high as America gears up to choose their next president next week.
So where are we on the state of play? Early voting has overall been positive for Republicans, and in particular in Nevada where its looking increasingly likely that Trump will win that state. The so-called Sunbelt states in general are looking promising for the Republicans, including Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Where things are looking far more difficult to predict is the so-called Rust Belt states; Wisconsin (WI), Michigan (MI) and Pennsylvania (PA). In the public polls, Trump has a narrow lead in PA but its effectively a tie in the other two states. I screen my polling to those pollsters who had the best success in 2020 and the overall map they are showing is the following:
As you can see, the overall picture seems to be a likely Trump win but PA is the key state. There are tentative signs that after sliding slowly over the last week or so, the Harris campaign has stabilised and could prevail in at least WI and MI.
One thing is for certain, WI and MI will be extremely close, with PA only a bit closer to the Trump side of things.
My own view is that either side can win this election but I would be surprised but not shocked if Harris pulls of a victory. However, my base case – with around 60% confidence – is Trump will win with 287 plus EC votes and quite possibly a win in the popular vote.
Historically the Rust Belt states vote together so history would suggest Trump should win all three states taking his EC lead to 312. It is simply too hard to say whether this happens this time or not though.
There is also the risk, certainly backed by the recent polling in places like New Hampshire or Virginia, that the Republicans might be able to flip one or more states, on a particularly good night, on top of the Rust Belt. We simply don’t know.
And on that note, enjoy election night!
forecastingintelligence 