The International Banker
“As “free” market capitalism breaks down in a postgrowth era, command economies will be the logical fallback — both China and Russia already have hybrid state-capitalist economies, and as China extracts itself from the economic crisis its last few decades have guaranteed it, it’ll move further into a command economy direction. Markets will doubtless continue to function, but they’ll be manipulated more and more openly to produce the results governments desire, and a growing fraction of real economic activity will go off-book or be reduced to subsistence activities and local exchanges detached from market forces.”
“The timing of the turn into contraction is complex, not least because it’ll be papered over by the manipulation of abstractions for a good long while. I expect it to happen one country or region at a time, with some maintaining growth while others begin to contract, but the tipping points are to my mind likely to cluster around 2030.”
John Michael Greer – The Ecosophia
Apologies for the delay in posting on FI. I’ve been busy with domestic projects and distracted by the US mid-term elections and Brexit chaos which have all diverted me from writing a FI post in the last couple of months.
This will be my final post for 2018 before I return after New Year to review (what looks to be a mixed performance!) of my 2018 forecasts and look at my crystal ball into what might likely occur in 2019.
I’m going to take you on a journey into our near future.
There is a group of small islands, called Jersey, Guernsey, Sark and Alderney which are close to France. They are known as the Channel Islands.
World Atlas
Economic and demographic challenges, principally a contracting population, a low birth rate and an aging society, are leading to an economic death spiral for the majority of these tiny islands. Sark, until recently the last feudal outpost in Europe, is facing a major crisis as young people leave the island, businesses close and the island faces looming bankruptcy.
To make things worse, the dysfunctional island government has entered into a serious dispute with the company which provides electricity to the island. The costs of ensuring that power is supplied are high and the locals have to pay considerably more then other islanders as a consequence. Whilst a last-minute agreement was reached in the last few days, there is still a real possibility that the lights could go out in Sark within months, making the world’s First Dark Sky island truly dark.
The economic implications of a contracting population, in particular a working-age population, is what interests me because it will be the fate of much of the core of our industrial civilisation within a decade. The forecasting company GEFIRA have a superb map showing how much of Europe is already shrinking and the same trend is occurring in East Asia, the Russian Federation and other parts of our core industrial civilisation.
GEFIRA No 27 newsletter
In Guernsey, where the economy has never recovered from the economic crisis of 2007/2008, the population is shrinking and housing prices have dropped 12.6% since a peak in 2014.
Alderney is facing an even worse economic death spiral. According to the Jersey Evening Post, a local Jersey newspaper “house prices in Alderney, for example, have fallen by around 40 per cent from their peak (nearly 20 per cent of houses in Alderney are unoccupied”. I recently visited Guernsey and Sark and you can smell the stench of economic and demographic death. Businesses closed, sale signs aplenty outside properties, a lack of young people (and if they are around, they are unhealthy, uneducated and shabbily dressed); the overall impression leaves you feeling depressed, even if the islands still have a special charm to them.
For those who have read their Greer books, they should not be surprised. In Greer’s book The Ecotechnic Future, he writes that the most isolated areas will be cut-off first from the benefits of industrial civilisation as rising costs lead to the gradual phasing out of services, goods and electric power to the most remote areas. In the American context, it will be the isolated rural areas of America which will see funding on the maintenance of roads shrivel up and die, the hospitals, police stations and fire stations closed and finally the power will be shutdown, permanently making these areas off-grid. Greer warns that once the lights go off, these areas of America will be dangerous, unstable and unwelcome places for visitors.
I see a similar process for isolated islands like the Channel Islands which will increasingly be cut-off by the UK government and major corporations as the costs of supplying, maintaining and preserving the benefits of industrial civilisation become untenable in the coming decades. Greer tentatively forecast that the rural areas of North America will see the power cut-off by the 2030’s, approximately a century after electrification expanded beyond the cities, towns and growing suburbs to the American countryside.
Many experts say that immigration is the solution to this primarily demographic challenge and in part they are correct. The island of Jersey, which has a more liberal approach to immigration from predominately central-east European countries, has benefited from an influx of young, skilled and hard-working workers who culturally “fit” within a predominately white and nominally Christian population.
The German experience since 2015 is a belated warning that not all immigrants are the same and a mass influx of largely uneducated young men from the Muslim world hasn’t worked so well. Culturally, these migrants have struggled to integrate into a world very different from their conservative, patriarchal and Muslim backgrounds. Many are still unemployed and of those that have found jobs, they are largely unskilled labour, not the future teachers, engineers and plumbers Germany so desperately needs as the baby boomer generation retires.
Compared to the Polish migrants who flocked to western Europe after the accession of the ex-Warsaw Pact states, who were educated and hard-working with academic backgrounds, it is equivalent to comparing apples and oranges. A balanced, prudent and qualitative immigration policy can mitigate against the challenges of an ageing and shrinking population but the wider mega-trends of climate change chaos, resource scarcity and the coming mega-migrations remain.
The end of economic growth is inevitable given the shrinking resource base of our global economy, the massive and growing debts and the rising costs caused by accelerating climate change. I have explored these issues in a number of posts, including “winter is coming”, “the sleepwalkers” and “Islamic Volkerwanderung”.
I concur with Greer’s analysis that around the year 2030 will be the tipping point for the majority of the world to enter into demographic and economic contraction (although some areas will be earlier, like Guernsey and Sark, and others later). The economic consequences of the end of growth and a shrinking population will be declining housing prices, growing fiscal pressures on governments to find enough money to fund services and pay pension obligations, weakening demand for goods and services within the real economy which will have a knock-on effect on companies.
A world of permanent economic contraction, likely within 15 years or so, will be a world where it will be abnormal for businesses to make a profit, a shrinking consumer base will spend less on goods and services and shares on the global bourses will have to adapt their assumptions on the real value of companies big and small. Global debt markets, both corporate and sovereign, will need to start factoring in whether in a post-growth era, will these bonds be repaid. Once the full-scale ramifications of the end of growth are realised by financial markets, the inevitable re-pricing of these markets could be violent and hugely disruptive.
On the flip-side, I also expect that so-called “free markets”, whether it is sovereign bonds, the FTSE 100 or the corporate debt market, will be increasingly manipulated by central banks and literally owned by the central banks themselves to keep up the pretense for as long as possible. For those readers who think I am exaggerating, note that the Bank of Japan currently owns nearly 75 per cent of the Japanese exchange-traded fund (ETF) market.
In the longer term, the capitalist system as we know it will end given the “limits to growth” megatrends, something that the German military predicted in their peak oil report which I covered here. The rise of the Eastern giants, China, India and Russia will see the emergence of hybrid economies which will command the distribution of economic resources once globalisation either implodes or fades away in the coming decades.
So, to conclude, the coming end of economic growth, in part triggered by the demographic shifts going in in the cores of our industrial civilisation, will lead to a fundamental reset of economic relations within a generation. This is the biggest story going on and it is barely registered by our media, political and economic elites.
forecastingintelligence 
Re: ” their peak oil report which I covered here.” There seems to be a link missing.
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The full report can be read here Bill (my link was to a review of a book that links a de speigel review of the German military report).
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.resilience.org/stories/2011-08-30/complete-english-translation-german-military-analysis-peak-oil-now-available/
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Smaller populations and less consumerism sounds good to me. London gets less agreeable every year because of the press of people, and I often think how nice it would be if we could get back to the levels of a few decades ago. Just as long as we don’t get more non-integrating immigrants instead – that truly would be the kiss of death for this country. We’ve reached or possibly passed saturation point.
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Agreed. There are clearly benefits to smaller populations but the economic transition will be tough to say the least!
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climate change is a myth according to leading scientists from MIT, Harvard, and Cambridge. It is a convenient scape goat. do better.
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Well I really wonder how things will play out here in Central Europe. With regard to the mass immigration of 2015 it is often really hard to say which interests are really at play.
I mean, an economic dimension is more than obvious.
But how much of this event was really planned, and how much underlies the misinformed thinking of an elite?
It is pretty clear that the immigration was an act that was planned, coordinated and marketed, and heavily at that. Many contradictions and many things don’t fit together, apart from the more than conspicuous fact that several laws and guidelines of immigration and humanitarian help were circumvented, which already gives it a bitter taste.
So there are indeed immigrants that find jobs around here and elsewhere in Europe. Even the newspapers covered that about ~300.000 African farm helpers are working in Italy living in shacks without electricity or running water, solicited by the mafia (what else).
But then, I also have my personal experiences and those of my fellows at hand, anbd there’s a good lot of young men from Africa and mid-east who live here since years, without job, opportuinity, education or any form of participation. Dreary as it is, I don’t know how big that pool of the hopeless really is, but it might be big enough to be a great liability for the future.
And on the issue of non-integration, the picture is diverse and clear analysis is very difficult, however I’ve met the worst stereotypes when doing social work and the likes.
I also live in a wealthy well situated district and you can live here without noticing ANYTHING of that what so ever. Which is a source of constant cognitive dissonance of the painful sort.
I am not even sure the right wing parties did not silently consent to this wave of immigration. Either this is just a good cop/bad cop game (left/right), OR as it seems in the US the capital and the business class have become heavily divided through the beginning fo the long descend, so that globalization has become a negative for a critical mass that now usurps power against the other part of the financial class so to say.
Thanks once again for your efforts and articles. With John Michael Greer as both our point of reference and the topic of the long descent, it is anything but easy finding someone whom you could talk about these things.
Any thoughts?
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Hi Mister Misteron
I find it nearly impossible to find anybody who I can honestly talk about even a fraction of the issues raised by John Greer. The vast majority of people, or at least the friends, family and acquaintances who I mix with, wish to discuss any of the serious issues facing our industrial civilization.
One of the major reasons I set-up this blog was that I need to “let of steam” my views on where we are likely going and I found it, apart from one person, impossible to have those kind of discussions with anybody in the “real world” which is why I went virtual.
In regard to immigration, yes its a huge challenge and is driven by both the wars within the wider MENA region and the bigger issue that is economics – the desire of young people, mainly men, to improve their lot through migration to the rich West. I don’t see a conspiracy although “liberal” elements within our elites have deliberately turned a blind eye to illegal mass migration for decades out of a mixture of ideology (diversity is good) and economics – illegal immigration is a source of cheap labour for our elites.
Now the backlash has started and politicians are under huge pressure to control our borders. We will see what happens in the future.
My own view is that two forces are colliding within Europe, which is at the epicenter of the migration/refugee crisis. 1) is the huge pressure from the nativist internal proletariat’s to control the borders and 2) the rising “limits go growth” mega-trends crushing the wider North Africa and Middle East (water, energy, land scarcity, climate change driven chaos and a population surge) which will lead to mega-migrations within decades into a dying Europe.
Ironically, these mega-migrations will probably save the EU as it will be in the interests of all the member-states to stay within the club to avoid future Islamic armies overwhelming Europe.
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Yes, same here. Even the brighter characters are unwilling and unable to deal with ‘our’ issues. Dealing doesn’t even mean consent or anything, the mere consideration is too much for most people to put it bluntly.
Fortunately I found three people recently, with one of whom I am in close contact, who are entirely serious and open for the questions of a Long Decline and many other of the issues.
All of them have a profound background in the traditional asian medicine and martial arts, probably not a coincidence, and one has a relatively high class scientific education.
And my co-worker that I share my workspace with since one year turns out as a young woman with surprising depth and clarity, which I cannot see anywhere else in the academic circus we’re in.
Other then that, always very difficult indeed. People seem so stuck and bound by their few concepts they live by.
From that point on I’d consider we also exchange a little on thoughts and matters?
I have considered writing in the past also, but am mostly constrained by time and energy in other relevant projects. I did write a few little essays over time on me thoughts on todays condition, this predicament and the
prevalent world views of my society, but only showed them selectively to certain people.
Maybe a summary review of my favourite inspiring books is a good initial points of further writing.
You probably also experience how the discussions in JMGs forum about the people and their reactions in everyday life start to materialize in one’s own life, with the colleagues at work, the family and the people you’ll meet,
and you realize this is no joke, and no vacuid talk we engage in, but a genuine reflection that seemingly we share with several people scattered around the globe, but not with any great mass or congregation of other people.
Especially JMG hit spot on with his book “After Progress”, beloved in my library, a clear and comprehensive analyses of the progress ideology, as a civic religion.
Once reading that book one cannot help but to see how people all around actually act, proclaim and think the way he describes, yet also obvious, they never think about it,
they don’t consciously understand the base of their own beliefs.
Well guess we best keep on walking on that path we’re on, calmly but insistently.
Fortunately I found three people recently, with one of whom I am in close contact, who are entirely serious and open for the questions of a Long Decline and many other of the issues.
All of them have a profound background in the traditional asian medicine and martial arts, probably not a coincidence, and one has a relatively high class scientific education.
And my co-worker that I share my workspace with since one year turns out as a young woman with surprising depth and clarity, which I cannot see anywhere else in the academic circus we’re in.
Other then that, always very difficult indeed. People seem so stcuk and bound by their few concepts they live by.
From that point on I’d consider we also exchange a little?
I have considered writing in the past also, but am mostly constrained by time and energy in other relevant projects. I did write a few little essays over time on me thoughts on todays condition, this predicament and the
prevalent world views of my society, but only showed them selectively to certain people.
You probably also experience how the discussions in JMGs forum about the people and their reactions in everyday life start to materialize in one’s own life, with the colleagues at work, the family and the people you’ll meet,
and you realize this is no joke, and no vacuid talk we engage in, but a genuine reflection that seemingly we share with several people scattered around the globe, but not with any great mass or congregation of other people.
Especially JMG hit spot on with his book “After Progress”, beloved in my library, a clear and comprehensive analyses of the progress ideology, as a civic religion.
Once reading that book one cannot help but to see how people all around actually act, proclaim and think the way he describes, yet also obvious, they never think about it,
they don’t consciously understand the base of their own beliefs.
Well guess we best keep on walking on that path we’re on, calmly but insistently.
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Hi
I would be delighted in maintaining a conversation with you on any topics you find interesting. Always good to find a fellow thinker on these issues.
Agree that Greer’s “After Progress” was in many ways his most brilliant book in the sense that he deconstructed the underlying ideology behind industrial society. I have to admit, it took me a few years to get over my own progress delusions, in particular his long-term prognosis on the internet and space travel.
Please feel free to comment on my future posts and if you would like to see me cover a particular topic I am always open to suggestions.
Writing is an odd job. I tend to get inspiration on key themes to write about but sometimes it can be difficult. At the moment i am fascinated by the yellow vests uprising in France and trying to work out what it all means and the implications. I don’t yet have a proper handle on it but it is something I am watching closely.
Brexit is also proving a major challenge and I will try and predict the outcome in my 2019 forecast I will be writing in January. Wish me luck!
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The yellow vests are an interesting point, I did not previously give much attention to it.
A friend mentioned it is most probably truly a n uprising due to pure and simple beginning resource shortage.
I mused about the interests and parties involved and he guessed, from working class people,small traders to trade union workers and higher levels of business
there is like quite a convergence of interest that crucial resource prices do not soar and crash the economy.
Does that seem probable to you?
I like Art Bermans analysis of the oil market. His predicitions have, I think turned out reasonably well for 2018 with a price of barrel 80$ mid 2018 (if I recall all that correctly).
His explanations are quite profound and reflect the inside of the business. No one I have met had previously heard that fracking only gives light oil, not the stuff our trucks and planes
run on, and the refining of the product runs into difficulties. That’s why the USA both import and export oil (? could always be I lost track a little of how he expressed himself exactly).
I like the chinese concept of time and history, where small cycles are overlayed by bigger cycles of time and events, and that’s also a useful way to imagine why some things recur and others
are very new.
So a starting point of attempting qualified predictions is probably analyze the energy and commodity markets, but the data from the IEA that Gail Tverberg or Berman use
are not public access and I must admit that some specialized terminology and economical parameters of the oil commodity market are still too obscure to me.
…and JMGs book After Progress on the other hand is also a nice starting point for sociology of the modern society. Highly interesting but much less aggregable data and measurable
reality, therefore a job for qualitative analysis, therefore a more complex matter than mere arithmetic in economics.
regards,
Mister
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…and good luck for your prediction 🙂
…brexit has been something I haven’t delved into much…safe for a few articles that portrayed the industrial decline of mid sized towns and the lives of their citizens
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