Apologies for the delay in posting recently, its been a very busy year. I have decided to switch from long-form articles to shorter quick takes (with links) to what I’m currently reading and reflecting about.

New study suggests the LTG BAU model is correct

“As well as the reduction in monetary income revealed by the UNDP’s data, there has been a shocking decline in the global Human Development Index (HDI), measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions: a long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. It has declined for two years in a row, for the first time ever.”

So, we peaked in 2020 and basic metrics for living standards have been declining ever since. If you study the LTG BAU model, those drops in global metrics massively accelerate from 2024/25 and will move beyond the global poor to the middle to upper income populations.

Ukraine is going to lose the war within the next 2 years or so

Superb article by John Greer explaining how Ukraine is running out of men, arms and supplies against a superior Russian military. He gives the collapse of the Ukrainian army within a year or so.

Longer term, he expects the Ukrainian government to surrender, and Russian troops to be at the borders of Poland within a few years. NATO will last a bit longer but once the Americans are out, its game over for Europe and a brutal new era of warfare and chaos begins.

He suggests Europeans start thinking about leaving the continent.

CNN admits Trump win in 2024 looking likely

Biden’s approval ratings are worse than Trump’s in his term of office and Trump looks strong assuming he wins the GOP primaries (that look likely). A Trump win in 2024 will send shockwaves around the world and quite possibly will trigger the downfall of the US as a global superpower.

President Trump is highly likely to pull the plug on Ukraine and quite possibly force US troops out of Europe at some point in his presidency.

Preparing for collapse

Interesting article by Ian Welsh on the LTG BAU collapse dynamics and how to prepare for the Long Descent. Learning useful skills is key.